Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Why We Add Grains of Salt to the ADP Employment Report

ADP, a private organization, released their private payrolls jobs report. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 201,000 private sector jobs in March 2011. Below are the reported private sector jobs from ADP. This report does not include government, or public jobs.

 

adppriv0311.png

 

We take the ADP report with a grain of salt, especially on a monthly basis. Why? Because there is a mismatch against the BLS jobs report. To date, the number of private nonfarm payroll jobs ADP reports versus what the BLS reports and on a month-to-month and even cumulative basis don't match. This monthly error is often large, especially when looking at small job growth overall (< 400,000 jobs per month) on a month to month basis.

Below is the cumulative difference between what the ADP reports as the private nonfarm payroll jobs vs. the BLS (ADP minus BLS). This line shows the divergence, over time in number of nonfarm private payroll jobs reported between the two reports.

 

adpminusblssa.png

 



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