Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for January 2011

You know an economic report is bleak when the title contains dismal start. Such is the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indexes report for January 2011. The composite indexes hit new lows, with the home prices of the 20 cities composite index being down -3.1% and the composite-10 dropping -2.0% in comparison to January 2010. Literally, in the report, we have this:

We have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing.

 

 

The above graph shows the composite-10 and composite-20 city home prices indexes. Prices are normalized to the year 2000, so the index value of 150 means single family housing prices have appreciated, or increased 50% since 2000 in that particular region. For the December to January percentage change, the composite-10 index is -0.9% lower and the composite-20 is -1.0%.

 

View the Original article

A Little Extortion Never Hurts the Bottom Line

Original published on The Agonist

It used to be if a corporation wanted to practice the dark art of extortion, it would do so well outside of the public eye. Not these days; company CEOs are out in the open and proud of it when they want to extract yet more money out of the taxpayers.

Take the case of Caterpillar CEO Douglas Oberhelman. He wrote a letter to Illinois state governor Pat Quinn, complaining about the state’s recent increase in the corporate tax rate from 4.8% to 7.0%. He said at least four other states have approached the company offering generous allowances if Caterpillar would move its headquarters out of Peoria, Illinois. Neighboring states of Indiana and Iowa have admitted to lobbying Caterpillar, as has the far-away state of Texas. The company said it wasn’t threatening Gov. Quinn over the tax increase, but it had “to do what’s right for Caterpillar.” That’s corporate-speak for “we’re threatening to leave the state if you don’t rescind this tax increase.”

View the Original article

Why We Add Grains of Salt to the ADP Employment Report

ADP, a private organization, released their private payrolls jobs report. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 201,000 private sector jobs in March 2011. Below are the reported private sector jobs from ADP. This report does not include government, or public jobs.

 

 

We take the ADP report with a grain of salt, especially on a monthly basis. Why? Because there is a mismatch against the BLS jobs report. To date, the number of private nonfarm payroll jobs ADP reports versus what the BLS reports and on a month-to-month and even cumulative basis don't match. This monthly error is often large, especially when looking at small job growth overall (< 400,000 jobs per month) on a month to month basis.

Below is the cumulative difference between what the ADP reports as the private nonfarm payroll jobs vs. the BLS (ADP minus BLS). This line shows the divergence, over time in number of nonfarm private payroll jobs reported between the two reports.

 

 

View the Original article

Hidden Truths About Nuclear Power

Michael Collins

A poster at The Agonist, Joaquin, published an elegant and important analysis this weekend. His tightly packed, brief post made three key points. We're headed for an ugly future with nuclear power based on shortages and future fuel cycles more volatile than those imploding and exploding in Japan. Governments, the nuclear industry, and the media are avoiding this issue entirely. As a result, the rulers and technocrats who got us to the latest meltdown cannot be trusted to make any more decisions about energy needs. (Image)

"The truth is, there is a big fat lie that the nuclear power industry and the media are foisting on the public and that has not changed." Joaquin

"What is it", the big fat lie, Joaquin asks.

View the Original article

Durable Goods New Orders Down -0.9% for Advance Report, February 2011

New Orders in Durable Goods decreased -0.9% for February 2011, after last month's +3.6% increase, which was significantly revised. To read why last month's report was not good news, click here.

Core capital goods new orders decreased -1.6%, after dropping -6.0% last month. Core capital goods is an investment gauge for the bet the private sector is placing on America's future economic growth.

 

 

View the Original article

New Scientist - Fukushima radioactive fallout nears Chernobyl levels

Michael Collins

According to an international scientific group monitoring radiation around the world, the Fukushima reactors are emitting nuclear toxins at levels approaching those seen in the "aftermath" of Chernobyl. The Chernobyl disaster began with an explosion, Fukushima is a smoldering cauldron of toxins. Chernobyl had 180 tonnes of nuclear fuel on site. Fukushima has 1700 tonnes of nuclear fuel on site. (Image)

This isn't the beginning of the end as hoped. It's looking like the end of the beginning.

CounterPunch ran an interview wit Japanese nuclear industry author Hiroshe Takashi just yesterday in which the author lamented the poor reporting of the tragedy in the Japanese press:

"Really, they talk this nonsense, trying to reassure everyone, trying to avoid panic. What we need now is a proper panic. Because the situation has come to the point where the danger is real." Hiroshe Takashi, March 22

View the Original article

Saturday Reads Around The Internets - Stories on Shafting the Little Guy

Welcome to the weekly roundup of great articles, facts and figures. These are the weekly finds that made our eyes pop.

China not the Biggest Holder of U.S. Debt

The below chart shows China holds only 9.5% of U.S. debt. This graph was made by political calculations, who are cranking out some very nice political eye candy with a lot of comparisons to Canada.

 

 

View the Original article

Q4 2010 GDP 3rd Estimate - 3.1%

Q4 GDP 2010 was revised up to 3.1%. The 2nd revision was 2.8%, and the Q4 advance estimate was 3.2%. The strong upward revision to 3.1% is a result of a revision reduction in the negative GDP contribution changes in private inventories made and a upward revision in nonresidential investment. Here are the BEA GDP releases and website.

 

 

For the entire year, GDP increased 2.9% in 2010, revised upward 0.1%. This is in comparison to -2.6% annual GDP growth for 2009. Q4 GDP increased 2.8% in comparison to the 4th quarter of 2009. Below is annual real GDP, going back to the 90's. As you can see, we ain't roarin'.

 

View the Original article

Corporate Profits for 2010

Corporate profits for 2010 were at an all-time high according to the BEA.

 

 

Profits from current production increased 29.2% in 2010, in contrast to a decrease of 0.4% in 2009. Domestic profits increased 37.0%, compared with an increase of 6.4%. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased 8.9%, in contrast to a decrease of 14.3%.

Taxes on corporate income increased 63.4% in 2010, in contrast to a decrease of 17.3% in 2009. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased 20.4%, compared with an increase of 5.1%. Dividends increased 1.9%, in contrast to a decrease of 9.9%; current-production undistributed profits increased 67.3%, compared with an increase of 81.3%.

For just Q4 2010, which is reported in annualized figures, we also have a record of $1.678 trillion dollars with an after tax profit of $1.250 trillion.

 

View the Original article

Residential New Construction February 2011

The February 2011 Residential construction report showed Housing starts dropped -22.5% from January 2011 to a level of 479,000. This is 20.8% below February 2010. We're back to April 2009 levels and this monthly drop was the biggest since 1984.

 

 

Single family housing starts dropped -11.8% from January whereas housing of 5 or more units has a whopping -47% plunge from January to February 2011.

Building permits, also dropped -8.2% to 517,000 and are down -20.5% from this time last year. According to Calculated Risk, building permits are at an all time low. Below is the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED graph for Building permits. The graph shows building permits are not always a smooth line from month to month. There have been data outliers before. The statistical error rate for building permits is much lower than for new construction and completions, a 3.3% vs. 9.8% error window. This report is seasonally adjusted.

 

View the Original article

PPI for February 2011

The Producer Price Index for finished goods increased 1.6% in February 2011. The PPI measures prices obtained for U.S. goods. Intermediate goods prices increased 2.0% and crude or raw materials prices went up 3.4%. PPI is often called wholesale inflation by the press.

The reason finished goods prices increased was energy, up 3.3% in one month and food soared 3.9% in one month. The increase in gas caused 45% of the energy finished goods increase. The Finished foods index monthly increased was 70% vegetables, which soared 48.7% in a month. It's unclear if the freeze and crop destruction in Mexico has something to do with this.

For the year, finish goods PPI increased 5.6%, the largest increase since March 2010.

 

 

Core PPI or finished goods minus food and energy, increased 0.2% for February 2011. There was a 0.6% price increase for passenger autos in core PPI and this was 20% of the total core PPI monthly increase.

 

View the Original article

CPI for February 2011

The Consumer Price Index for February 2011 increased 0.5% from last month. For the year, the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) has risen 2.1%. January CPI was 0.4%.

 

 

Food at home increased, 0.8% from January to February, Gas alone rose 4.7% from and Fuel Oil increased 4.8% from last month. For the year, Gas is up 19.2%, fuel oil up 27.1%, that's almost a third, and food at home has increased 2.8%. Heating your house with gas, on the other hand, dropped -5.9% for the year. Below is the monthly percentage change in CPI-U.

 

 

View the Original article

Initial weekly unemployment claims for March 12, 2011

Initial weekly unemployment claims decreased to 385,000 this week and last week was revised up to 401,000. The 4 week moving average dropped to 386,250. Weekly unemployment claims seem to be hovering right above the job creation point of 375,000 per week now.

 

 

View the Original article

Power Corrupts, Nuclear Power Corrupts Absolutely

Michael Collins

The Chairman of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Gregory Jaczko, told a US House of Representatives subcommittee that: "There is no water in the spent fuel pool [at the Fukushia I plant] and we believe that radiation levels are extremely high, which could possibly impact the ability to take corrective measures." A "utility spokesman" for Tokyo Electric responded quickly claiming that the "condition is stable." AP, March 17

The New York Times, China's Peoples Daily, and other outlets covered this extraordinary asymmetrical exchange between the highest nuclear regulatory official in the US government and a "utility spokesman." (Image)

The public disagreement between two close allies in the midst of a severe crisis is highly instructive on a number of levels. If chair Jaczko wrong, it is a terrible embarrassment for the US. If he's right, we can conclude that much of the information from Tokyo Electric is questionable.

View the Original article

Sunday Morning Comics - Apocalyptic Cow Edition

^{Brought to you by the America Goin' Down Society - We're 80% to our Goal! Donate today!.}

 

Good Morning! Rise and Shine! Get that Cup O' Joe...
break out the O.J....hang out with the pooch...time to check out the Funnies.

 

Crisis in Dairyland - Apocalyptic Cow

 

^{Cartoonist: R.J. Matson}

 

The Word - Economic Boom

 

^{Cartoonist: Mike Luckovich}

 

View the Original article

Existing Home Sales - Down 9.6% for February 2011

The National Association of Realtors released their existing home sales figures.

 

 

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million in February from an upwardly revised 5.40 million in January, and are 2.8 percent below the 5.02 million pace in February 2010.

All cash sales, which implies investors, not families are buying the homes, hit a record at 33% of all existing home purchases.

The median price of all existing home sales is $156,100, a 5.2% drop from last month.

Distressed homes – sold at discount – accounted for a 39 percent market share in February, up from 37 percent in January and 35 percent in February 2010.

This means people are picking up foreclosures at bargain prices.

Housing inventory also increased an 8.6 month supply, but is down 1.2% from last year.

Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 3.5 percent to 3.49 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 7.5-month supply in January.

The graph was courtesy of Calculated Risk, where they are more graphs of NAR data.

View the Original article

Supreme Court Tells Fed They Have 5 Days to Cough Up Bank Bail Out Details

Seems the Banksters lost and Bloomberg won as the Supreme Court refuses to hear the Federal Reserve Appeal on releasing the names of banks who received loans during the financial crisis.

 

 

View the Original article

Japan Goes Nuclear Update

Today brings once again conflicting reports on the ongoing nuclear crisis in Japan. First, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, in spite of what's going on in Japan, has proclaimed the United States does not need to make any changes to our own nuclear reactor safety, from methods to structure.

A top official with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said Monday that the nuclear crisis in Japan did not warrant any immediate changes in American nuclear plants. The commission’s inspectors at each nuclear site have been told to double-check that emergency precautions mandated years ago were still in place, including temporary hoses and fittings and other last-ditch backup equipment, said the official, William Borchardt, the executive director for operations. They are also to verify that plant operators know where the equipment and materials are, he said, “to make sure they haven’t fallen into disuse because they haven’t been used.”

Yeah, right.

Below are International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) slides showing radioactive levels from three days ago. One can see the sharp radiation increase and corresponding declines.

 

View the Original article

The Great Financial Circle Jerk

Yes the title is crass, vulgar. Yet the never ending trading of mortgage backed securities, previously titled toxic assets in some game of musical chairs justifies the analogy. Take just this latest revolving door as an example. Did you know a former New York Federal Reserve Official, in charge of overseeing AIG now works for AIG?

The insurance giant has also brought on board Charlie Shamieh as chief actuary; Mark Scully to oversee actuarial functions at its main property and casualty division, Chartis; Sid Sankaran as chief risk officer; and former Federal Reserve official Brian Peters to also help manage risk in an executive position.

Naked Capitalism comments on this little gem in Sleaze Watch:

Now we have another example of unseemly revolving door behavior, this with an even more direct connection between a former official’s old purview and his current role, this time involving AIG and its biggest sugar daddy, the New York Fed.

View the Original article

Japan Causes Public Doubts on Nuclear Power - Future of Industry in Question

Michael Collins

Citizen response to the disaster in Japan will have a major impact on future sources of power in the United States, our ability to live in a healthy environment, and the future of the nuclear power industry.

We do not yet know the outcome of the unfolding disaster at Fukushima I in Japan. There are conflicting stories about attempts to contain the reactors and public health hazards posed by this extreme nuclear event. At Zero Hedge, Tyler Durden has a breaking story on reactor number 1 at Fukushima that could have dire implications.

However, we are getting a glimpse of public reaction to the events in Japan. The Christian Science Monitor reported the results of a national survey on nuclear power conducted by OCR for the Civil Society Institute (March 15, 16-814 individuals).

View the Original article

New Residential Home Sales - February 2011

In February, New Residential Single Family Home Sales decreased 16.9% from January, with an annual sale rate of 250,000 new homes. This is a 28 0% drop from a year ago. In February 2010, new home sales were 347,000. January 2011 new home sales was revised to 301,000. February marks an all time record low.

 

 

View the Original article

Portugal Votes Against "Austerity"

Anyone notice a pattern? The banks bring about economic armageddon. Governments bail out the banks Carte blanche and then insist on screwing workers everywhere, from pensions to retirement to wages. The new crisis is under the guise that nation must now get out of debt.

What's wrong with this picture? Quite a bit according to Portugal's Parliament:

Opposition parties said the budget - the fourth package of austerity measures in a year - went too far.

"Today, every opposition party rejected the measures proposed by the government to prevent that Portugal resort to external aid," Mr Socrates said in a televised address.

"The opposition removed from the government the conditions to govern."

The vote late on Wednesday came on the eve of a European Union summit to finalise a eurozone debt crisis plan.

On Thursday, Eurozone leaders begin a two-day summit during which they hope to finalise details of a "grand bargain" to deal with the 17-nation group's debt burden.

The country's borrowing costs have surged as investors worried over its financial health.

Lisbon has argued its situation is different from Greece and the Irish Republic - both of which have agreed to bail-outs from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

It says that its deficit and debt are lower than those nations, that it has not suffered a bubble in property prices and that its banks are sound.

Jose Socrates, Portugal's prime minister, resigned in protest that his plan was rejected. While Parliament won this round, when the EU and IMF come knocking, odds on Portugal's workers are going to lose.

View the Original article